FLOOD WARNING: Ottawa River – Arnprior to Hawkesbury – Update #5

April 27, 2019

Weather Forecast:
Environment and Climate Change Canada is forecasting up to 5 mm of rain today. An additional 20 to 30 mm of rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday, May 2, 2019.

Environmental Conditions:
Significant precipitation has fallen over the northern and western portions of the Ottawa River basin in the last 24 hours. Runoff from ongoing snowmelt and recent rainfall has swollen most of its tributaries. Flows and levels along the Ottawa River continue to rise due to runoff caused by rainfall, saturated soil, and snowmelt over the central part of the basin.

Risks:
All flood-prone areas along the Ottawa River from Lac Coulonge down to the Montreal Archipelago are at risk.

Peak water levels across many areas of the Ottawa River will exceed those experienced in May 2017 over the next couple of days. Risk is highly dependent on the amount of precipitation that is received.

Updates to all projections will be provided as they become available.

MVCA areas of concern:
Water levels in the Constance Bay area have risen approximately 0.25 m over the last 48 hours and are currently near levels reached in May 2017. The Ottawa River Regulation Committee (ORRC) currently forecasts water levels to rise an additional 0.40 m to 0.60 m above the 2017 levels and are projected to peak on April 30.

RVCA areas of concern:
Water levels in the Britannia area (Grandview Road, Britannia Village, and the Belltown Community) have risen approximately 0.25 m over the last 48 hours and are currently near levels reached in May 2017. The ORRC currently forecasts water levels to rise an additional 0.40 m to 0.60 m above the 2017 levels and are projected to peak on April 30.

Water levels east of Cumberland Village (Boise Village, Morin Road, Leo Lane) have risen approximately 0.35 m over the last 48 hours and are currently just below levels reached in May 2017. The ORRC currently forecasts water levels to rise an additional 0.40 m to 0.60 m above the 2017 levels and are projected to peak on April 30.

SNC areas of concern:
Water levels in the Clarence-Rockland and Alfred-Plantagenet area have risen 0.35 m over the last 48 hours and are near the levels observed during the May 2017 flood. The ORRC currently forecasts that water levels are projected to rise an additional 0.40 m to 0.50 m above the May 2017 levels over the next three days.

The ORRC is also forecasting water levels in the Hawkesbury area to rise another 0.30m above the May 2017 levels over the next three days.
Due to the forecast uncertainty it is difficult to accurately predict how quickly water levels will rise and when river conditions may peak.

ACTION:
Residents in flood-prone areas are encouraged to closely follow evolving conditions and to take necessary measures. Sandbags are available to residents in flood prone areas.

Residents are advised to stay away from watercourses where flows are high and where banks might be unstable. Parents are encouraged to explain dangers to children.

Duration:
This Flood Warning is in effect until Monday, April 29, 2019.

South Nation Conservation (SNC) and its Ottawa partners, the Rideau Valley and Mississippi Valley Conservation Authorities, monitor the water levels and weather forecasts with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry as part of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program. Updates are provided as conditions change.

The Ottawa River Regulation Planning Board will be reassessing forecast conditions and providing hydrological condition updates on its website daily at www.ottawariver.ca/forecast.php.

Please visit www.nation.on.ca for more information. To provide feedback with respect to changes in water related conditions please email waterwatch@nation.on.ca, post on our Facebook (/SouthNationConservation) or Twitter (@SouthNationCA).

For more information regarding the Ottawa River, visit www.ottawariver.ca.

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