Flood Warnings and Safety

This is an update to the Flood Outlook released on March 4, 2026. Warmer temperatures and rainfall over the weekend has led to increasing river levels, flooding of low-lying areas and unsafe conditions near  waterways. Additional rainfall forecasted for March 10 into the 12 could lead to further flooding depending on the total amount of precipitation received.

Weather Forecast

Environment Canada is forecasting continued above-zero temperatures on March 9 and 10, leading to additional snow melt across the SNC jurisdiction. Rainfall is expected to begin March 10 and continue through March 12, with total precipitation amounts approaching 45 mm by March 12.

The extended forecast shows a decline in temperatures after March 12, with mostly below-zero temperatures for the following week, including some snow accumulation.

Environmental Conditions

Recent warm temperatures and rainfall over the weekend caused significant snowmelt and runoff across the watershed, increasing water levels and flows in local rivers and streams. River levels peaked early Monday morning in the headwaters and have since begun to gradually decline; however, levels remain elevated across the watershed and may rise again with additional rainfall and snowmelt expected later this week.

Snowpack remains in parts of the watershed, particularly in forested areas, and continued melting is expected as temperatures remain above freezing. Ground conditions are saturated, limiting infiltration and increasing runoff to waterways, with rivers and streams near capacity.

Ice remains in the main river systems, and rising flows could cause ice movement or breakup, increasing the risk of localized flooding.

Based on current forecasts, the SNC flood forecasting model indicates water levels could peak again around March 12, potentially resulting in flooding in low-lying areas, floodplains, and areas with poor drainage.

Risks

Rivers throughout the jurisdiction currently have elevated water levels, fast-flowing water, and slippery or unstable banks, creating hazardous conditions near waterways. Remaining river ice also increases the potential for ice breakup and ice jam formation at bridges, culverts, and other channel constrictions.

The extent of flooding will depend largely on the amount and timing of rainfall over the coming days. Additional updates will be provided as forecasts become more certain.

Action

Residents in flood-prone or low-lying areas, historically susceptible to flooding, should take the necessary precautions to protect their property.

Please ensure:

• Sump pump is clear, in good working condition and has a backwater valve on it.
• Easy access to portable backup generator and pump.
• Downspouts are clear and the outlet is at least 3 m from the dwelling.
• Driveway culverts are clear of debris and drain well.
• Items that might float away as flows increase are secured.

Residents are advised to continue to exercise extreme caution near rivers and waterbodies due to increasing river flows and slippery conditions. Any ice-covered bodies of water are considered unsafe. Parents are encouraged to explain these dangers to their children.

Duration

This flood watch statement is in effect until March 11, 2026, at 5 p.m. or until an update has been issued.

SNC advises that warmer temperatures and forecasted rain will mark the beginning of the spring freshet which will result in quickly rising river water levels and unsafe conditions.

Weather Forecast

Environment Canada (ECCC) is forecasting sustained above-zero temperatures starting March 6. Daytime temperatures are expected to reach up to 15 degrees C in some areas leading to snow melt. Warmer temperatures will likely be accompanied by rainfall, with total rainfall amounts approaching up to 25 mm by March 7. ECCC’s extended forecast shows a continued warming period with the potential for an additional 50 to 80 mm from March 10 to 13.

Environmental Conditions

Snowpack and snow water equivalent across the South Nation Conservation jurisdiction are slightly above normal for this time of year, while ice thickness on rivers across the jurisdiction are mostly below normal. River water levels are currently on the low side of the normal seasonal range, creating capacity in local river systems.

It is anticipated that by March 7 snow melt and rainfall will result in increased river water levels and fast flowing water. Considering today’s forecast, the SNC flood forecast model predicts that water levels will peak on March 13, resulting in flooding of low-lying areas, floodplains, and areas with poor drainage. Widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, however, this can quickly change depending on the amount and intensity of rainfall received.

Risks

Rivers across the jurisdiction will result in higher water levels, fast flowing water and slippery or unstable banks. Additionally, these conditions elevate the risk for ice breakup and ice jams at bridges, culverts and other areas producing localized flooding concerns in low lying areas.

Action

Residents are advised to exercise extreme caution when near rivers and waterbodies due to elevated flows and slippery conditions. Parents are encouraged to explain these dangers to their children.

The timing and amount of rainfall received will determine the extent of flooding. Residents in flood prone or low-lying areas, historically susceptible to flooding, should take the necessary precautions to protect their property. Please ensure:

• Sump pump is clear, in good working condition and has a backwater valve on it.
• Easy access to portable backup generator and pump.
• Downspouts are clear and the outlet is at least 3 m from the dwelling.
• Driveway culverts are clear of debris and drain well.
• Items that might float away as flows increase are secured.

Duration

This flood outlook statement is in effect until March 9, 2026, at 5 p.m. or until an update has been issued.